January 8, 2013 § Leave a Comment
John Brennan has been nominated to take the top spot at the US Government’s torture and spy agency. You may remember Brennan from his outspoken support of torture, rendition, assassinations, and “NSA eavesdropping” (domestic spying).
The TSA is the American Sicherheitspolizei (literally “safety police”). Visibile Intermodal Prevention and Response (VIPR) teams, a subdivision of the TSA, guzzled $105 million tax dollars in 2012. A little-noticed section of the Federal Register released in November discusses plans to expand their presence in 2013.
The United States Federal Government (USFG) has announced plans for renaming and regrouping American troops and contractors in Afghanistan in 2013 and beyond. Governments like to do this sort of thing; they rename soldiers as contractors or troops as civilians, count the newly named folks, and report downsized, favorable numbers — a cutesy tactic to trick the public.
War isn’t just a foreign phenomenon. It’s happening right here at home too. A son of a member of Joe Biden’s Gun Control Task Force was convicted of planning mass murder, similar to the Columbine tragedy, nearly a decade ago. Reports indicate he had planned to use his dad’s service weapon. These are the people to whom the statists want to give even greater authority over the lives of others in the form of gun control.
Markets seem to be coming off their temporary high after central planner announcements the world over in late 2012 and early this year.
Not shown above: Gold is up $14 — really the only green action on the day so far.
Also, the newly elected prime minister of Japan has promised to print, print, print in order to buy up European debt.
Art Cashin (Director of floor operations at UBS) spoke to King World News last Friday to discuss the gold smack down, the resolution of the Fiscal Cliff, and market reactions heading into 2013. He talks how “new money” is driving “symmetric” growth in global markets. Translation: government money printing is driving nominal indicators, but no real growth is happening.
This work will be a piece of economic and financial history you’ll find in every library and classroom once the fiat currency system withers, and perhaps (hopefully) before then. Ron Paul has issued a massive anthology summarizing his time as Chairman of the House Financial Services Subcommittee. Of course, it’s free to download (over 1000 pages).
Discussing inflation at Goldmoney.com:
In Case You Missed It
Here’s Alex Jones taking it to Piers Morgan last night on Morgan’s CNN show.
January 7, 2013 § Leave a Comment
Government bureaucrats love to switch sides. Obama advisor Hongju Koh does a 180 and suddenly <3′s drone bombings.
Stubborn foreign leaders have this thing about power, they don’t like to give it up. Of course, if foreign presidents and the like were calling for the resignation of our own dictator at home, I doubt the Obombinator would acquiesce. Assad in Syria, like Obama here, refuses to give up his power: he’ll take advice, “but not orders.”
Total cost of wars since 2001 in Afghanistan and Iraq: $1.41 trillion. Feel safer yet?
Many financial economists and econometricians (yeah, try getting that one right the first time) point to the Great Depression in their calls for more government stimulus. Sure there are different schools of thought as to what extent the government should intervene, whether it should act from a monetarist (think Fed money printing) standpoint or fiscal (think Treasury policy) view. These “new monetarists” like the Michigan professor recently featured on Capital Account think we should do away with debt limits entirely, and literally print money until full employment is achieved. If you don’t understand how that would be possible, worry not, neither do I, nor do I think the proponents of such nonsense truly believe it either.
Regardless of each version of the pro-intervention argument, no modern school of economic theory examines the money supply. Readers of Ryan’s Review understand that this is likely the gravest error anyone labeling themselves an economist can make. After all, money is one half of every transaction. And since we know that when supply rises and demand remains constant, prices fall, we can conclude that when the supply of money rises and demand remains constant, the price of money will fall (the interest rate). Lower interest rates allow debtors to borrow at reduced risk. Capital intensive producer’s goods become cheaper to make (and thus more profitable) relative to costs faced in a free market wherein the supply of money and thus the price of money does not fluctuate so rapidly. This is why we see the housing booms or internet booms, and the like.
In the Great Depression, the rate of money supply growth hit double digits near the end of the booming 20′s, just before the economic collapse in that fateful October. Care to take a guess what the rate of money supply growth is in the US? According to the most recent Fed release, money supply growth just hit 10.3% (and that’s monthly).
Bob Wenzel at Economicpolicyjournal.com says this is a buy signal for the US stock market. I agree. Asset prices are going to rise and therefore their prices expressed in the marketplace wherein they are exchanged amongst buyers and sellers (the stock market) will show rises as well. Oh but be wary, when the money supply growth rate reverses course and heads back to zero, the deflationary effect on asset prices previously inflated by Fed money printing will reverse course as well. Ryan’s Review will be sure to point out when growth rates reverse.
Nothing big happening today on the calendar.
If most people are doing something, you probably shouldn’t be doing that something. The biggest winners in financial history are contrarians, those who go against the grain, the entrepreneurial types who understand fundamentals and can stomach the risk necessary to act on their gut. Mainstream commentators label contrarians as prophetic, or truly inhuman, people who just know things that the rest of us helpless non-contrarians are just never privy to. Not so. Being a contrarian requires knowledge and courage. These are the titans of industry who not only pick the unpopular bets, but stick with it through the derision that follows. People like Peter Schiff.
Schiff’s been taking heat recently, even from more contrarian-friendly outlets like Capital Account. Can’t wait for the next Peter Schiff was right video featuring those who laughed at Schiff’s forecasts (again)…
Take a listen to Eric Sprott, billionaire asset manager, commodities expert and international analyst. He talks the recent Fed minutes and their effect on gold and silver spot prices. Great line: “The Fed is trying to suck and blow at the same time.”
In the News
Infowars: The top story covers the up and coming Senate rejection of globalist Chuck Hagel as the new Secretary of State. This little sideshow of Capitol Hill infighting should be laughed at. It’s materially nonsensical and I even considered putting it in the comedy section.
DrudgeReport: The top story links to a Hill story with the headline, “Democrats look for up to $1 trillion in new tax revenue.” In other words, the story covers the means in which government people seek to accomplish their desired ends. All individuals seek to do this. Government individuals are the only class of individuals who achieve their ends without offering something other people are willing to trade for. Instead, they tax.
NaturalNews: The top headline is: “Total media blackout on shooting where private citizen stopped mass murder by using gun.” Of course, armed good people are the best deterrent to armed bad people. The leftist statists would disarm the good people and ask that the bad people follow the law and abide by gun bans. Seriously, that’s the argument. And since the war on drugs has worked so well, we might as well have a war on guns too. Right?
***DO NOT MISS THIS***
Just announced: Alex Jones will debate Piers Morgan on his show on CNN on Monday night at 8 pm EST, 5 pm PST. Larry Platt obliterated Morgan when he appeared in 2012. Jones is vicious; this round will be much better. I wouldn’t be surprised if Morgan ended up cutting Jones’ mic. But you can definitely expect plenty of useless, whiney name-calling on Morgan’s part. Check out the announcement below:
January 3, 2013 § Leave a Comment
Precious metals may take a temporary hit in price due to investors leaving perceived safe havens and directing funds towards the stock market thanks to Bernanke money-printing. When the printing stops or hyper-inflation hits (one of which will happen), those holding gold and silver will look like financial geniuses.
A point of emphasis for today: see that “target rate?” That’s the rate of inflation the Fed wants. Low interest rates mean cheap credit (low cost of money). Cheap credit makes large capital assets more affordable relative to goods that don’t require credit to acquire. This is why when the Fed manipulates interest rates downward (to 0 – 0.25), asset prices rise. This is why stock market indicies shoot upwards. Stock markets are nothing but a place where investors allocate funds to businesses, most of which require a large amount of capital. Excessive buying of stocks boosts prices. High prices indicates to the Keynesians that the economy is doing well. They forget the affect of regulation of business, taxation of financial events, and inflation on savings and their respective degrading effects on financial health. In other words, the Fed exchanges short term gains for long-term destruction.
Expect more green numbers than not in the days and months going forward, so long as Bernanke printing continues.
***With the family folks, today’s Daily is a light version. See you tomorrow***
January 2, 2013 § Leave a Comment
January 2, 2013 § Leave a Comment
The rate posted here is called the “Fed Funds Rate.” From the Federal Reserve website: “By trading government securities, the New York Fed affects the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances to each other overnight. The Federal Open Market Committee establishes the target rate for trading in the federal funds market.” Depository institutions include banks like Bank of America and JP Morgan. In other words, the rate listed above is the rate at which big time banks lend money to one another. Notice how the rate in the graphic is extraordinarily low (.09?!). That’s not normal. This is why the Fed Funds Rate is displayed on The Daily. Just like with the Cost of War graphic, it’s important that we are aware that the interest rate (the price of money) is set by the Fed, manipulated from what it otherwise would be.
I know that eventually, this rate must rise, so I’m keeping a pulse on it daily. When the rate does turn course and heads upward, I’ll have commentary on what that means for the rest of the economy. For now, this chart serves as a reminder that the economy we operate in today is distorted by the Fed.
I’ll be on the road today for a good chunk of time, but will definitely try to get back with some commentary on those FOMC minutes that are set to be released at 2:00 pm EST.
The Purchasing Managers Manufacturing Index (PMI) figure is based on a questionnaire sent out to managers in charge of procuring materials to be used in the manufacturing process. The last PMI for December, the most recent one, was 54. This number is strong as a reading over 50 demonstrates growth. If you are familiar with Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT), this would be no surprise to you. Bernanke’s massive money printing to the tune of $45 billion per month (that we know of) is directed more often than not to capital goods — goods used to produce either other capital goods (manufacturer’s goods or consumer goods). Why does this happen? When interest rates are unusually low relative to the real market rate, as they are now, manufacturers are positioned to earn a greater spread in the production of goods that require credit to fund the cost of production. If you check the graph here, you’ll notice that the PMI started to rise in late ’08, not long after the Fed’s most recent massive money printing scheme began.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index is similar to the PMI in that it takes a snapshot of manufacturing activity. From the site: “The [index] is constructed so that any level at 50 or above signifies growth in the manufacturing sector. A level above 43 or so, but below 50, indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing even though the manufacturing sector is contracting. Any level below 43 indicates that the economy is in recession.” The current ISM Mfg Index is hovering just above 50, so the Index shows growth in manufacturing, in accordance with ABCT. This growth, however, is not natural and is only a result of Fed money printing. Stop the printing, stop the growth, hello recession.
Nothing new from King World News.
Nor from Capital Account.
Lewrockwell.com pick of the day: “Chicago: America’s gun-free killing field.” This article by Karen de Coster reviews how some of the nation’s strictest gun laws are turning Chicago into a modern-day war-zone.
Mises Daily Alert: “In Praise of Pawn Stars.” This excellent (and short) article talks about how the History Channel’s Pawn Stars is a “capitalistic feast for free market junkie[s].” Take a look to add a little humor to your day.
Top story at DrudgeReport: “Republican Horror New Year.” This huff-puff article talks about the demise of the Republicans courtesy of Obama’s tax-raising deal to end the Fiscal Cliff drama. But does anyone really think the Republicans were for lower taxes? Come on now…
Top story at Infowars: “Obama Would Call on Military to Disarm Americans During National Emergency.” Paul Craig Roberts reports on the details of an army manual recovered by Infowars.
Top story at NaturalNews: “Psychiatric thugs hunt down, arrest innocent man on the street, then drug him into submission in Australia.” The state-controlled psychiatry department goes to work.
Top story from the Money section of the Daily Mail: “House prices still too high, says economists, despite forecast they won’t return to 2007 peak for six years.” My favorite line from the article is this quote from a Deutsche Bank person: “If interest rates were ever to return to ‘normal’, we would soon realise how overvalued the housing market actually is. That does appear to be some time off, however.”
Yes, yes, a million times, yes. This is what Ryan’s Review has been saying for months. Of course, the Deutsche Bank spokesperson knows that interest rates won’t soon revert to market rates because he knows, like I know, that the central banks of the world will continue to manipulate them downwards by flooding the market with liquidity. However, the music will stop eventually, and the true value of homes will surface. As Bob Wenzel says, lock in your low rate mortgage before the bubble bursts and rates sky-rocket.
January 1, 2013 § Leave a Comment
A Word From the Editor: Welcome to Ryan’s Review and The Daily, a new, once per day post with relevant data points, links, videos, and information on all things liberty, property, and markets. I hope you’ll find these daily offerings original, useful, and informative. I spend a good chunk of my time online, and what I put together in The Daily is something I don’t think you’ll find anywhere else on the web. Enjoy.
Real Money (from 2012)
Fake Money (from 2012)
None today. Markets are closed this New Year’s Day.
KingWorldNews (KWN): Check out John Embry’s 10 minute take on what’s going to happen in 2013. He notes the incredible liquidity infusions projected to occur and their long term effects on asset prices, bonds, and precious metals.
Capital Account: This latest episode is from December 21 and talks about the financial shifts of 2012.
You’ll usually find a link to the latest Peter Schiff Show here as well; however, he’s been out of the office since the 21st, and his commentary is usually only relevant day to day.
Lewrockwell.com (LRC) publishes 12 articles a day on a wide range of topics that Rockwell finds pertinent. Some can run long, so I’ll post my favorite here in hopes you’ll enjoy it like I do. My first recommendation is an article about Murray Rothbard. Readers of Ryan’s Review will want to familiarize themselves with this legendary economist as his intellectual viewpoint lies at the heart of analysis and commentary offered here.
The Mises Institute emails a daily article to all its subscribers. Rather than crowd your inbox with something you may or may not want to read, log on here for a link and some advice from me as to whether its worth your valuable time. If you’re interested in taking an online course with the Mises Academy, something I’ve done myself, then check it out, if not, keep on scrollin.’
Lead story on DrudgeReport: “New Republican math: $1 in cuts for every $41 in taxes.” Cuts are set to total $15 billion, tax revenue to skyrocket $620 billion. Scary stuff.
Most Popular story on Infowars.com: “Diane Feinstein says her goal is to disarm all Americans.” There you have it folks. Keep in mind this is the same woman unleashing the legislative end-all-be-all of gun ban bills, one which Obama has stated he plans to put his ‘full weight’ behind.
From NaturalNews.com: “The results are in: more guns sold mean fewer gun deaths, injuries.” It’s important to understand that Ryan’s Review is pro-ownership first, and therefore pro-ownership of, well, everything next. As Professor Walter Block says: “if it moves, privatize it. If it doesn’t move, privatize it. Since everything either moves or doesn’t move, privatize everything.”
Top story from the Money section of the Daily Mail: “Business leaders call for bold moves to kick-start growth in 2013 as economists say UK faces a 50-50 risk of triple dip recession.” Here’s a question for all the mainstreamers out there, how many times must one economy ‘dip’ into recession before you admit that the economy isn’t dipping into anything, but rather swimming in depression?
*** Like what you see here? Want to see something more on a day to day basis? Send me a recommendation and I’ll look into it***
December 31, 2012 § 2 Comments
People are catching on to what the Austrian School of Economics, Libertarianism, and Anarcho-Capitalism have to say. Since I’ve been posting more regularly since August 2012, views on the site have risen dramatically (figures listed as percentage change from the month previous):
I’ll soon be announcing new changes to Ryan’s Review that will only make the view count rise faster. Ryan’s Review is the site you’ll want to bookmark in the New Year as I continue to offer analysis and commentary that industry professionals unknowingly agree with, and offering projections and forecasts with accuracy that you won’t find at any mainstream news or commentary outlet.